I agree with the OP and some of the other observations here. From the combat dev stream the other day, around the the 35 minute mark, Boyan discussed what led them to the current burst/auto fire system.
a recoil system was tested, wherein each bullet fired impacted the trajectory of the next
this apparently resulted in "unpleasant gameplay effects", wherein there were too many kills
this also resulted in a "cartoon" like effect where, when bursting against enemies at range (not sure if select fire or full auto), the enemy's outline would be 'painted' with bullet holes, and no bullets hitting their intended target
As others have pointed out, the solution to eliminate recoil modeling and implement a boardgame-like -50% CTH/ -50% DMG to multi-shot attacks is a poor band aide to the issues identified.
It's been said above, but the problem with the supposed optimal strategy being to run up to an enemy and burst-fire on them points to the need for enemy interrupts. If such a simple gameplay strategy was resulting in too many kills, that doesn't just mean that burst fire is "too strong", it can also mean that the underlying enemy spacing, map design, etc is not optimal.
Finally, modeling recoil resulting in the cartoon-like situation described on the stream. Full auto fire should be inaccurate at medium to long range! Select fire burst should be less accurate the more shots that are fired. It is natural that auto and burst have niche uses in close range fighting, and are only viable at medium to long range by the most skilled and strong marksmen.
Unfortunately I expect this is right. Based on the comments made by the community manager, wherein he thanked THQ Nordic for giving them time to implement the ballistics system, I expect the program manager(s) for JA3 sees no benefit in making this even more like JA2 / Silent Storm, and the devs are being pressured into making fast, easier mechanical decisions - at the expense of the tactical layer - to hurry through content production and ultimately release.
Given the history of JA2 successors and the success of nuXcom, I'm honestly shocked we have ballistic simulation at all.